Voting 3rd Party Will *Not* Elect the Greater Evil

thirdpart


Greetings, my sisters, my brothers, & my others —
Today, I’m writing to you about the math of the general election, as well as why that math tells us that the vast majority of you can vote your conscience without being a “spoiler” & electing whoever the greater evil is (which is pretty debatable, by the way). It’s true! This is not my opinion — this is arithmetic

It is my sincerest hope that this article will help to put a decisive end to all of the public vote-shaming & bullying that’s been going around these days — so, if you’ve been bullied or pestered online lately for supporting Jill Stein or Gary Johnson or anyone else, worry not — the math is with you.

And I’ll show you why follow me!

Making Sense of the Insane Math
of the US Presidential Elections

As I’ve explained quite thoroughly in a recent article, a third-grader would almost certainly be able to design a fairer, more efficient elections system than the circus of folly that we have planned for November. But (ironically, perhaps) the same “first-past-the-post,” winner-takes-all electoral process that has strangled all but 2 political parties appears to also be the reason that most of you can vote for 3rd parties in 2016 without having to worry about electing the “greater evil.”

Average margins of victory in the last 5 presidential elections. Bright red = GOP >20%, bright blue = Dem >20%
Average margins of victory in the last 5 presidential elections. Bright red = GOP >20%, bright blue = Dem >20%

Since 100% of a state’s electoral votes go to whoever gets 1st place there’s no point in trying to get get anything less than the most votes, which means there are basically 2 kinds of states — states that are competitive & states that aren’t. In other words, a GOP candidate won’t waste time campaigning in New York or Hawaii, where democrats win with margins greater than 20% — likewise, a democrat wouldn’t waste time on Idaho or Wyoming for the same reasons. In a winner-take-all system, states are either “flippable” — or not.

All of this begs the question –: do non-GOP votes in Wyoming or non-democratic votes in New York even matter?

What the Math Says

The short answer is — no.

If we define “mattering” as “having even the slightest effect on the outcome,” then all votes for the democrat literally don’t matter in states that the republican candidate won & the same goes for GOP votes in states that the democrat won. Since none of those votes have any effect on the outcome, it doesn’t “matter” who those votes are for — whether they were votes for the other major party’s candidate or for a 3rd party or even Cthulu, they have precisely zero effect on the actual outcome.

cthulhu-for-presidentNow, this is about to get pretty ridiculous because the truth is that, even when a candidate wins a state, a lot of the votes for that candidate also don’t matter. Here’s why — let’s say that the GOP wins a state 51-49% against the democrat & the GOP candidate takes 100% of the state’s electoral votes. Now, imagine the same situation, except this time the GOP wins with 75% — in a winner-takes-all system, do they get any more or any less electoral votes? No. Now, imagine they’ve won the same state with 99.9% — does the GOP candidate get even 1 more or 1 less electoral vote? They do not. So — did it “matter” who any of the votes past 51% were for? 

In the United States’ presidential election, not only every vote for candidates that lose but many of the votes for the winner have absolutely no effect on the outcome!

Pretty stupid, huh?

According to Math,
Your Vote Probably Doesn’t Matter

Statistically-speaking, the votes of about 4/5ths of you probably haven’t really mattered in a presidential election since before the year 2000 — that’s because only 10 states have given their electoral votes to more than 1 party for the last 4 elections & about 78% of you live in the 40 states (& DC) that have voted for the same party every time.

all-votes-matter-graph2016 appears to be coming down to even fewer than 10 — in fact, according to 270towin.com‘s state-level polling averages, there are only 8 states where there is a margin between Trump & Clinton smaller than 5%. Actually, many of the most respected elections experts (whatever that means) seem to agree that there are only 7 true swing-states in November (NV, CO, IA, OH, VA, FL, & NH) — but, out of those 7, there may be as few as 2 (FL + OH) whose electoral votes will “make or break” each candidates’ chances!

What This Means About Your Vote

The red & blue states have voted that way for the last 4 elections. The other 10 are the swing-states. [
The red & blue states have voted that way for the last 4 elections. The other 10 are the swing-states. [NOTE: Nebraska is one of the two states that can actually split their vote — part of it has voted GOP with the others, the other part has been “swing-y”]
Now, the 10 states that, after the 1996 presidential election, have sometimes voted for one party or the other are Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, & New Hampshire. If you are part of the 22% of the US citizens that live in one of those states, then you might have to face the moral dilemma of whether to vote for the lesser of two evils or not. If the polls & the pundits are correct, however, those of you in New Mexico, Indiana, & North Carolina could be off the hook, which leaves a mere 7 states or 16.5% of the US population with votes that may actually matter.

But what about the remaining 78-84%? Do their votes matter? I hate to say it, but — no, not really. If you happen to live in one of the 40-43 states (+DC) that are almost certainly not going to swing — well,  you may vote for whoever the hell you’d like to & you can do so without assisting (or hindering or having any effect whatsoever on) any evils!  Think of it this way —

If you live in a state that is “safe” for whoever you think the lesser-evil is, then your vote for the greater good will not affect them — & if you live in a state that is “safe” for whoever the greater evil is, then your vote for the greater good will not affect them, either.

You do not have to deal with the moral dilemma of whether to vote for the lesser-evil or not — you are free to vote for the candidate who actually represents you & your ideas, instead of the candidate who you think will be slightly less awful!

Yay!

To Sum It All Up

3rd-partiesIt’s true that our elections are rigged to favor a 2-party system & that this system has predictably & systematically stamped out 3rd parties & independents, which repeatedly puts us in the situation where we are forced to decide which is the worst of only 2 likely options — but the twisted “upside” of this whole winner-takes-all, “your vote doesn’t matter” thing is that you are liberated, in a weird sort of way, from having to choose either of those options.

The consequences of these decisions are very real for many of us & so it’s important for us to acknowledge the moral complexity of the issue by not shaming & not being mean to each other over their decisions to vote or to not vote for the lesser evil. At the same time, it is strategically important for US voters to understand that the ultimate result of “lesser-evil-ism” will obviously still be evil, which means that we need to figure out how to fix the fundamental problem

In this author’s humble (yet often stunningly accurate & insightful) opinion, one of the first steps in fixing that problem must be millions of us refusing to co-operate with any evil — until we stop rewarding the politicians who run this corrupt system with our begrudging votes, they’ll continue to use it to suppress our voices. 

In solidarity,
John Laurits
[twitter-follow screen_name=’@JohnLaurits’] 

Other Recent Articles by John Laurits
How To Destroy Democracy:
A Guide to the US Electoral College
(9/2) New!
Social Revolution 101: The Causes of Inequality
(8/28) New!
The Media Revolution:
Seizing the Means of Story-Production!
(8/26) New!
Why Sanders-Supporters Are Mad (& Why You Should Be, Too!) (8/22)
Why Aren’t Americans More Infuriated? (8/16)
Why Millions Should Refuse the Lesser Evil (8/13)
[Video] Interview w/ John Laurits & Jeff Epstein (8/9) 
From the Heart of America: #NeverGiveUp
(8/8) 
#OurRevolutionContinues: The Path Forward
(8/3) 
The DNC Protests, Part One: Confusion or Sabotage?
(7/30)
The “Democratic” National Convention (7/27)
We Are Not Defeated
(7/26) 

Democracy Spring Demonstration, July 25th 
The Democratic Convention: #MarchForBernie
(7/24)
The Game is Up — #DemExit & the #DNCLeaks
(7/24)
About Prayers & Violence
(7/17) 

For a more complete list of John’s articles (& other cool stuff),
******Click HERE to visit “The News-Real”******


¹Well, there are actually two exceptions — in Maine & Nebraska, 1 elector is chosen in each congressional district & 2 electors are chosen by the state-wide popular vote.

*Also, you can follow John on Twitter @JohnLaurits & (if ye feel so inclined) you may support him by buying him a coffee HERE or, to make a monthly donation, you can…

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chipswun29
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chipswun29

Our two party system is an “illusion of choice,” neither are working for you or me. I was a registered Democrat for forty years, that came to an end in July, I want no part of what the party has now become.

Jane Eagle
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Jane Eagle

From a post I saw:
I am so tired of hearing people kvetch that voting 3rd party is the height of white privilege.
Heck. Let’s just get down to business & admit that VOTING AT ALL is the height of white privilege. White. Affluent. Educated. Until recently, male.
So if you’re going to attack people who intend to vote 3rd party, then just admit what you’re doing: you’re attacking our right to vote for the candidate of our choosing.
Now THAT is the height of privilege.

Glenn
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Glenn
Since neither party of the duopoly will campaign in any state except where the polls are so even that they present as swing states, all votes for a sure loser in those states are wasted votes. It doesn’t matter if Hillary loses by one vote or by a million votes, she will receive absolutely zero Electoral College votes from that state. For example, if a state is given up as a lost battle for Hillary with Trump at 60% and Hillary at 40%, then all votes for Hillary are wasted votes because they have absolutely no impact on the number of Electoral College votes Hillary receives because Electoral… Read more »
Glenn
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Glenn
If a vote for Stein is somehow determined by Democrats to be stealing a vote from Hillary, the assumption must be that there is a common ground between Stein and Hillary that would result in a split vote. A vote for Hillary in a state where she is sure to lose is a wasted vote since it has no effect on the outcome of the election. So if Hillary would campaign for Stein in states where Hillary is sure to lose and Stein would campaign for Hillary in swing states to ensure a Hillary win over Trump, then both would stand to win something from the participation of… Read more »
art55
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Extremely astute and strategic discussion. Unfortunately, I believe Colin Powell analysis is correct, and Hillary’s hubris would not allow her to follow such a strategy.

Robert & Patricia Gouin
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If that is her response, then she should lose all those votes! Period A Jill Stein win would be a great win for Women, and she can be voted FOR in 47 States & the District of Columbia! If the Voters can ” Conjure up” the Spine/Courage and vote for her, she will change this Nation for the better! Much Better! She definitely has our vote!! (We have always voted Democratic since our first participation, 54 years ago, but the Democratic Party has betrayed the 99%! And “they” deserve consequences for “their” actions of corruption & betrayal! Jill Stein is the most Progressive Candidate we have ever had… Read more »
Robert & Patricia Gouin
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We cannot disagree with any of your post! Very well reasoned! Thank you for showing how the “Progressive” Democratic Platform of Hillary Clinton/Democratic Party can be used to hold them to their claimed “Progressive Values”! How can they excuse a refusal to embrace your idea, and propose a coalition with the Green Party, with Bernie Sanders as the “glue” that binds them together in common cause for this Election of critical importance to the future of our Nation and “ALL” of its people, in an even greater common cause toward a more just and dignified life for everyone in our Nation, as well as the rest of the… Read more »