The After-MATH: Kentucky & Oregon

OR KY AfterMATH

The After-MATH:
Oregon & Kentucky

Note: Minor updates will be ongoing, as the last few %s roll in and, possibly, as irregularities are discovered or addressed in the extremely-close KY primary. 

Welcome back, my friends! Before we dive into the details of the delegate math, I’d like to extend my sincere gratitude to all of you who assisted me with research, who sent me articles, and who pointed out errors (you know who you are) throughout my ongoing coverage of the disaster in Nevada — please, know that your help was appreciated greatly!

Now, let’s move forward and examine the math from Kentucky* — I shall be updating this article with the math from Oregon shortly (depending on how quickly the results pour in, of course).

*At the time of writing, most sources are reporting that Kentucky is too close to call (with the exception of CNN) and, because of “voting irregularities,” (tired of those, yet?) it is likely that the primary’s final result won’t be called (except, probably, by the fart-heads at CNN) for at least a few days

Kentucky: The After-MATH

For all practical purposes, we seem to have tied in Kentucky — but, as is usual with such a close race, I’m sure that there will be recounts, investigations, and adjustments that will unfold in the coming days and weeks. The situation may change — but let’s work with what we know presently. With 99.8% reporting currently, Clinton is reported to have 46.8% and Sanders to have 46.3%.

Now, all shenanigans aside (and there are shenanigans), the Green Papers has (so far) allocated 28 pledged delegates to Clinton and 27 to Sander. Adding the new delegates to each, the pledged delegate totals now stand at:

Clinton  = 1,745

Sanders = 1,464

In order to reach the bare majority of 2,026 pledged delegates, Bernie Sanders will need…

2,026 – 1,464 = 562

562 more pledged delegates! Then, subtracting Kentucky’s 55 pledged delegates from the previous total of remaining delegates, we get 842 pledged delegates remaining to be won (until those Oregon results begin rolling in)…

562 ÷ 842 = 0.667

Sanders is going to have to win 66.7% of the remaining vote — but don’t get too attached to that number, yet — the results from Oregon are pouring in and that number is soon to change! Stay tuned for the Oregon math, where the fate of an additional 61 delegates will be decided…

 

Oregon: The After-MATH

At the time of this writing (about 01:00pm PDT), 55 out of 61 pledged delegates in Oregon have been allocated by the Green Papers and 95.5% of precincts are reporting. Sanders has handily defeated Clinton in Oregon (though, admittedly, not quite as handily as many of us had hoped) with 56.0% to 44.0%, and 32 to 23 delegates. This increases both totals to:

Clinton  = 1,745 + 23 = 1,768
Sanders = 1,464 + 32 =1,496

Subtracting Sanders’ new total of 1,496 from the bare majority of 2,026, we get:

2,026 – 1,496 = 530

Sanders now needs 530 more pledged delegates to take the lead — and, dividing 530 by 787 (the number of remaining delegates) that means:

530 ÷ 787 = 0.673

Bernie will have to win 67.3% of the remaining contests to win the majority — “an uphill battle,” as the Sand-Man says!

What This Means

Now, since I’ve built up a reputation that I don’t plan on spoiling anytime soon, I’m going to pictch it to you straight: we must do better than we’ve been doing! In May, out of 229 pledged delegates, Sanders grabbed 125. That’s 54.5% of the delegates because:

125 ÷ 229 = .545

That’s 9.9% shy of what we were originally aiming for and, because of that, we now have to aim even higher — at 67.3%.

Difficult, but not impossible. Remember: they wouldn’t have risked such openly corrupt behavior in Nevada (for a delegate or two) if they weren’t afraid of Sanders closing the gap. Clinton’s match-up polls against Trump look worse every day and her favorability ratings have been — and are — falling steadily. Clinton hasn’t won a single state in May and she knows this. That’s why she is stepping up her campaign in California, right now. The democratic party knows that Clinton is performing dismally among independents and even the number of democrats that wouldn’t vote for her is rising (especially, after Nevada). This is not the time to give in — this is the time to press harder than ever! From now on, anything other than our best performance will not be enough. 

But take heart, my friends! What Kentucky and Oregon have taught us is that Clinton is now having trouble breaking even in closed primaries, which used to be where she performed the strongest! On June 4th and 5th, when the Virgin Islands (7 pledged delegates) and Puerto Rico (60) hold their open caucuses (which is where we usually do best), we will have a shot at gaining some needed ground before Judgment Day on June 7th. And don’t forget that California is a semi-open primary. 

I will write again soon about the various polls and other relevant numbers in the upcoming contests — until then, keep donating and phonebanking! If we don’t help him, Sanders doesn’t stand a chance — if we all help him, he will win. Don’t listen to the tales that the corporate media are spinning — they want us to feel divided. They want us to feel isolated. They want us to feel like this was all a dream.

I assure you — it is not a dream. It is ours if we will only seize it. The future is not some predetermined thing that we are entering against our will — we are creating the future, right NOW. 

In solidarity,
John Laurits
[twitter-follow screen_name=’@JohnLaurits’]

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And here’s some bonus material because I’m feeling generous, today:

“Captain’s Log”
Update – 5/17 08:51pm PDT:
Sanders 53.0%, Clinton 47.0%, 60.1% reporting
Update – 5/17 12:30pm PDT:
Sanders 54.3%, Clinton 45.7%, 72.3% reporting
Update – 5/18 01:30am PDT:
Sanders 54.4%, Clinton 45.6%, 73.3% reporting (damn, I haven’t had to stay up this late since Guam…!)
Update – 5/18 02:45am PDT:
Sanders 54.5%, Clinton 45.5%, 74.8% reporting (alright, if you don’t see an update for a bit, I might’ve just closed my eyes for a bit — but I’m not asleep! Just meditating so that I can build up more chi…)
Update – 5/18 03:54am PDT: Sanders 54.5%, Clinton 45.5%, 74.8% reporting (Alright, maybe the vote counters are sleeping — I can’t allow those villains to gain the advantage over me by being better-rested than me! Therefore, I must sleep — just a little bit — to counter their strategy…)
Update – 5/18 10:10am PDT: Sanders 55.8%, Clinton 44.2%, 92.3% reporting

And, if you need a little pick-me-up:

 


*You may follow John on Twitter @JohnLaurits. And, if ye’d like, you can also help out by buying John coffee HERE, which he is always very grateful for.

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51 Comments on "The After-MATH: Kentucky & Oregon"

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[…] the earlier mailed-in ballots) — then, we watched as the percent of the reported votes crawled slowly up to around 92%, at which point I collapsed from exhaustion around 4:30am. The next day, our numbers continued to […]

Mauritius
Guest

If super delegates were awarded proportionally to the winner of each state – Hillary wins

If super delegates were awarded winner take all to the winner of each state – Hillary wins

If you ignore super delegates altogether – Hillary wins

If you just leave the current rules in place – Hillary wins

It’s all over folks.

Guest
Guest

It’s not all over. Sanders’ supporters have one more tool at their disposal: refuse to line up behind Clinton, even if Sanders asks them to, and either vote for another candidate or not vote at all.

Steve
Guest

Hahahahaha…. Now that’s the biggest joke comment I’ve heard latly. There simply aren’t enough stupid Bernie followers to NOT vote for Clinton and alow Trump and the GOP to dismantle Obamacare, elect up to three ultra conservative supreme Court justices (overturning Roe v Wade, and dismantling all progressive legislation for the next severalseveral decades), privatizing Social Security, and generally speaking crushing ANY progressive movement for a generation. It’s idiots like you who have turned Independents off Bernie and why his donations have dried up and he will lose. Bernie or Bust clowns are MORONS ????????????

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[…] article was initially written by John Laurits on his blog.  I wanted to share it here because not all of my followers here are my followers on Facebook, […]

Mauritius
Guest

Once the votes are counted in NJ, she will have surpassed the total delegates needed to clinch the nomination.

#FeelTheMath

Matt DeKok
Guest

No she won’t. She can’t clinch the nomination with superdelegates until the convention because superdelegates don’t officially vote until the convention. She’d need to beat 2383 “pledged” delegates to clinch the nomination. There is no doubt. We’re headed to a contested convention.

The superdelegates chose their candidate before Bernie even announced he was running so it’s anyone’s guess who they’ll side with at the “contested convention”. I’m not getting my hopes up that they’ll switch, but it’s entirely possible.

Mauritius
Guest
You need 2383 total delegates to win. That includes super delegates. It’s not “anyone’s guess” who they will side with. Do you think that the super delegates will switch to the candidate who until now, campaigned to get rid of them? It is ironic that Sanders supporters now want the super delegates to ignore the fact that Hillary is ahead by 270 pledged delegates and 3 million votes. I’m telling you, Hillary will be giving her primary clinching victory speech after New Jersey Don’t give me that “but the polls say…” nonsense. The election isn’t till November, and Bernie has… Read more »
Johnny Sluff
Guest

In fact if I really think about it, given none of the delegates have actually voted yet, and none of them are actually legally bound for who they’re pledged or promised to, Johnny Sluff Math says that all Berni has to do is win 50.1% of all the delegates at the convention. Forget all this 67% nonsense That’s entirely possible and reasonable. Feel the Math…

Johnny Sluff
Guest
Pledged delegates don’t vote until the convention either, that’s kind of the point of the convention. In fact a pledged delegate doesn’t technically have to vote for the candidate they pledged to, they can change their mind as well as the Superdelegates. The difference between the two is that a pledged delegate has “pledged” to vote for a certain candidate based on the Caucus or Primary. A “pledge” is like a really serious promise (try looking it up). In the same way a Superdelegates has promised to vote for a certain candidate, it’s just not quite a serious as an… Read more »
Another Matt
Guest

…with about the same probability as a meteor strike leveling the convention on national TV. Not impossible, certainly, but it would be a a huge surprise to say the least.

PS — probably best not to use the word “contested,” which means someone doesn’t win on the first ballot. It might be safe to say that the Sanders campaign forces them to take the vote rather than releasing his delegates like Clinton did in 2008, but it won’t be contested.

Lofty
Guest

Thanks for continuing to fight the good fight and keeping us informed John! Recent events have been tremendously discouraging to my faith in our country, but one thing Bernie has accomplished in spades is bringing so many good people together that it’s impossible to get TOO discouraged. One way or another, this country is going to get a very needed change.

Andrew Futral
Guest
y’alls are stoned for thinking Sanders has this. I voted for him and would love to see him as president, but my wishes are just that. 67% might not seem insurmountable in terms of math, but take a step back and look at the demographics. If Sanders couldn’t win Oregon by more than 10 points (a state that looks like a strong Sanders state in terms of demographics) what are the odds he wins New Mexico, California and New Jersey at all, let alone by the 27 points he needs (States that look like strong Clinton states)? There have been… Read more »
Johnny Sluff
Guest

First sensible post I’ve seen on this website, but I need some more Bernie Math to cheer me up. So can we stop with common sense and get back to some more Crazy Calculations, or how Republicans should be allowed to vote in a Democratic a Primary, stuff like that…

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