A Quick Update on Sanders’ Recent Delegate Gains in WA, CO, & ME

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Some After-After-MATH

Greetings, my friends! I’ve recently gotten a lot of questions from a lot of you concerning the recent delegate gains in Washington, Colorado, and Maine. Many of you were wondering whether my numbers in “The After-Math: Guam” reflected the delegates that we’d acquired at the state convention in Washington — the answer to that question is, “Basically, yes.”

This is because, from the very first delegate article, I’ve used the delegate totals from The Green Papers and they do a very good job of keeping their totals both accurate and up to date. The Green Papers had already accounted for the delegates that weren’t officially apportioned in Washington until the state convention. The good news is that we’ve gained a few delegates! While the Green Papers’ totals tend to be the most accurate on the internet, they can and do shift as the various levels of conventions do all of the confusing things that they do (like the delegates we just grabbed in WA, CO, & ME, for example — or like that time that we flipped the results in NV because Clinton’s delegates didn’t show).

For the reasons I’ve just talked about, we did indeed gain a few delegates after I’d written up the After-Math for Guam — and, since we’re already talking, I suppose that I may as well give you a very quick brief on the newest pledged delegate totals! With the handful of new delegates that I was unable to account for in the last article, the totals now stand thusly:

Clinton  | 1,706 pledged delegates
Sanders | 1,419 pledged delegates

Now, to hit our target we will need:

2,026 – 1,419 = 607

607 delegates! With 926 delegates left to grab, in order to reach the legendary 2,026-delegate majority, Sanders will need:

607 ÷ 926 = 0.655 or 65.5%

And there you have it. To win the majority, Sanders will need 65.5% of the remaining vote.

The Unknowable Variables

But let the events of the last two days serve as a lesson for us all: though it is indeed gravely important, our righteous struggle to attain the majority of delegates is not the only force at work here — there remain many as-yet-unknown variables that my math cannot account for. For instance, we may yet gain more delegates at the level of the state conventions, shifting the battlefield further in our favor. Also, if we can keep the pressure on them (keep talking, sharing, yelling, about AZ, NY, etc. on social media!), there is still some hope that the results of some of the states that engaged in particularly obvious voter-suppression might be changed.

Also, for those of you who are interested in understanding or becoming involved at the state convention level, I am working on something special that should be available to you soon…

That’s it, for now, my friends — I shall return to speak with you all again, after West Virginia. In the meantime, get on those phones and donate whatever you can to Bernie Sanders! Clinton is running out of corporate donors but Sanders only has you.

In solidarity,
John Laurits #SeeYouInPhilly


 

*Note: John has just joined Twitter (finally!) and you may follow him and send him pictures of your dinner and crappy mainstream media math to debunk @JohnLaurits. (If ye’d like) You can also buy John coffee HERE.  [twitter-follow screen_name=’@JohnLaurits’]

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28 Comments on "A Quick Update on Sanders’ Recent Delegate Gains in WA, CO, & ME"

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Johnny Sluff
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So he can win if he get’s 65%+ of the remaining delegates, and you’re saying this with a straight face? Seriously, you think Bernie is going to get 65% for the rest of the primaries? That means Hillary will need to get 35% or less. Seriously, you think Hillary is going to get less than 35% of the vote in New Jersey and California? And then, when he pulls this off, he’ll convince 65% of the super delegates to support him as well? Even though most of them have already said they’re supporting Hillary, and they don’t even like him?… Read more »
Pamela Valemont (@poet47)
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“carry on like this and you’ll get Trump in the White House” – second option always at the ready: Bernie gets voted in as an Independent. There are a couple of petitions out there asking him to do this if he gets refused the nomination.

Johnny Sluff
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Well, that’s what will likely happen, just because it’s unfair doesn’t mean it won’t. Also interesting phrasing, “if he gets refused the nomination”, maybe you need to re-read the rules, but you need to win a majority of delegates to win the nominations, no-one “gives” to you. And your own Math says Berni has to win 65%+, including the superdelegates who Hillary has already “won”. Again a 30 point spread in new Jersey and California? Really? Clearly you’re raging at the unfairness of it all. It is unfair, but in the end America is a democracy, and majority rules. If… Read more »
Zane Longden
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Made a meme today! Please share and spread around freely!
comment image?efg=eyJpIjoidCJ9&oh=f33787f7c71cf17f66b22f0de0c0da6c&oe=57D846BC

Miaren Crowsdaughter
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Anyone who refers to himself as a mathemagician is worth a follow in my book!

rumirules
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Please share widely ! Extremely important update from Jordan Chariton of The Young Turks for voters in the disastrous #NYprimary, and all voters. Please watch and share widely. Gist: 1) Everyone in NY that voted by affidavit ballot – go to your own area Board of Elections *in person* *as soon as possible* and *persistently* start this process, because you by *law* have full #VotersRights: a) Ask if the BOE counted your vote. They *must* answer this. b) If not, immediately start the process of New York Election Law 16-106. c) The state is completely obligated to go through your… Read more »
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[…] we’ve grabbed 62% of the delegates in West Virginia, just a hair shy of our 65.5% target. This, along with the recent delegate gains at the state conventions, puts the current delegate […]

rumirules
Guest

Hey John, news just in: http://www.opb.org/news/series/election-2016/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-oregon-poll/

If I am not mistaken you are from Oregon right. I thought it was Bernieland. What do you think?

Zane Longden
Guest

As I said in the previous post, I am a fellow Oregonian with the author. I call bs on that poll. A sample size of .00108 (901 likely voters in a pool of over 833,000 registered democrats) is hardly representative of any trend in Oregon. No way Bernie will not win Oregon next Tuesday.

rumirules
Guest

Thank you ! I was really surprised when I saw that poll. Gooooooo Oregon! We need to crush her there.

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